Monday, October 1, 2012

ObamaFacts - Recessions

There have been eleven "official" US Recessions since the impact of the Great Depression and World War II.

Recession of       Dates                  President at Start   Worst Unemp.
1949              Nov 1948 – Oct 1949      Truman (D)        7.9%
1953              July 1953 – May 1954      Eisenhower (R)  6.1%
1958              Aug 1957 – April 1958     Eisenhower (R)  7.5%
1960–61        Apr 1960 – Feb 1961       Eisenhower (R)  7.1%
1969–70        Dec 1969 – Nov 1970      Nixon (R)          6.1%
1973–75        Nov 1973 – Mar 1975      Nixon (R)          9.0%
1980              Jan – July 1980                 Carter (D)          7.8%
Early 1980s    July 1981 – Nov 1982      Reagan (R)        10.8%
Early 1990s    July 1990 – Mar 1991       Bush I (R)          7.8%
Early 2000s    March 2001 – Nov 2001  Bush II (R)         6.3%
Late-2000s     Dec 2007 – June 2009     Bush II (R)        10.0%

Of the 11 post-War recessions, only 2 started during a time when a Democrat was President. One could argue that perhaps in some of these the downturn actually started during the prior administration and the actual economic effects were not felt until the next Presidency.
  • How many months must a President be in office before the recession is considered on his "watch?"
  • Below is a list of how long it was between inauguration and the first recession under each President.
  • Presidents Kennedy, Clinton and Obama all inherited recessions that began in the prior administration. All were over within 5 months of their inauguration.
  • No Republican President inherited a Recession begun during a prior Democrat administration.

Each of these Presidents was sworn into office in January.
President                 Date in Office               Months until 1st Rec.
Roosevelt/Truman           until 1953
Eisenhower             January, 1953 - 1961                 5
Kennedy/Johnson    January, 1961 - 1969      No recessions
Nixon/Ford            January, 1969 - 1977                11
Carter                    January, 1977 - 1981                36
Reagan/Bush          January, 1981 - 1993                  5
Clinton                   January, 1993 - 2001       No recessions
Bush                      January, 2001 - 2009                  2
Obama                  January, 2009 - present.    No recessions

You can click on each of the recessions above and go to the Wiki site that will tell you more about each one and why it happened.

The National Bureau of Economic Research decides when a "Recession" begins or ends. The NBER defines a recession as, ""a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales" http://www.nber.org/cycles.html

Seemed interesting.

For a graph of the recesions go to:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.pdf?&chart_type=line&graph_id=&category_id=&recession_bars=On&width=630&height=378&bgcolor=%23b3cde7&graph_bgcolor=%23ffffff&txtcolor=%23000000&ts=8&preserve_ratio=true&fo=ve&id=USREC&transformation=lin&scale=Left&range=Custom&cosd=1948-12-01&coed=2012-09-01&line_color=%230000ff&link_values=&mark_type=NONE&mw=4&line_style=Solid&lw=1&vintage_date=2012-10-01&revision_date=2012-10-01&mma=0&nd=&ost=&oet=&fml=a&fq=Monthly&fam=avg&fgst=lin